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Investor
( 162 posts )

[855 Replies]
Pakistani rupee value is doing a nose dive and currency value has depreciated 30% compared to british pounds since 2017.

I bought 2 plots back in 2015 in bahria town. Even though the price of plots have gone up by 10% each year, the value of currency however depreciated and the investment is completely worthless.

Anyone seeing anything positive coming out of pakistan's economy in the next few years?

    233 days ago In Where to Buy
    Post Answer
    Imtiaz
    (1114 posts)
    1. Market Correction: is only possible if (i) there is a regularization or regulation for Real Estate or (ii) if there is a share-based ownership with daily buying-selling of plot/project shares as in stock market. Unless such things happen, market correction may not happen. However, there will be 'Market Adjustment for Supply-Demand Factor'

    2. Supply Demand Adjustment: Post 2015 to Mid 2018 there have been demand for Real Estate purchases due to the fact that generally economy was ok, relatively stable PKR with good investment from overseas. Even demand was created that, even if some people didn't wanted, New Airport Factor made many to invest with an increased demand. Now, since June 2018 Real Estate is almost at a standstill.

    3. Artificial Hikes: Some developers sell files and then close the booking and launch new booking with increased prices. This is a manipulative favour from developer to his blue-eyed Agents and the ones down that hierarchy to sell the old ones on higher premium a practise that has been common in MPCHS and BT etc.

    4. Growth: 2019 and foreseeable future seems all stagnant for Real Estate as things stand now. Projects with fast paced development (Smart City, BT KHI, Enclave etc.) are seeing decent but controlled rise and demand.

    In, short, I believe things will remain as they are, less investment and more saving. Project with internal development will grow steady as far as 2019 is concerned. USD on a rise is prompting many overseas to retain savings then to invest in uncertainty.

    - Land and Cost of Land is a Local Factor regardless of USD-PKR Parity

    - Developing the land (Development Charges) requires export entities so it affects.

    - When inflation is high and sharp decline in Currency Value, Saving becomes viable then local investment.

    Plots with possession will see more or less same prices. However, construction material will get costly of-course.
      38 days ago 

      Sohail Khan
      (137 posts)
      Three things stopping the real estate business to boost currently otherwise genuine buyers are happy at the moment and buying procession plots to build their houses silently.

      1. the corrupt looters are holding their money tight as they have no clue as where to park it and how to make it legal, all are headless and making iftar parties together to save their past sins, they are almost successful in turning people attention that they are together just because of the pain they feel for the people of the country and they are together to get rid of inflation and poverty, Which they could not did in last 3-3 tenures. Its now important to sent them to military courts for quick refunds and decisions, otherwise they will not stop this propaganda.

      2. Secondly all overseas Pakistanis are also scared and holding their investments as they don’t know as where this currency will settle. So in the great self-interest its best to hold it for further better rate. Some one needs to built their confidence.

      3. Our dear currency exchange dealers, spicing up very well to earn as much as possible in current situation.

      Things will be back to track as soon as the above three factors corrected.
        37 days ago 

        Imtiaz
        (1114 posts)
        The tragedy of this nation is bunch of hypocrites ruling in the past and now.

        "Imran Khan asking Pakistanis to Send Money through Hundi, not through Banks"

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2lShmQZzHz8&pbjreload=10

        * Then (Opposition Leader) urging nation and Overseas Pakistanis to send Remittances through Hundi (much worse then Open Market Forex) that is not only illegal and risky for sender but also a killer for the Economy/Banking System and National Currency.


        * Now (Prime Minister) urging nation and Overseas Pakistanis to do exactly the opposite.

        ------------------

        USD in Open Market touching 152 and beyond.

        The day such hypocrisy gets sorted, half the issues of this nation will be resolved by default.
          35 days ago 

          YC
          (423 posts)
          Imtiaz I think sales proceeds of your land are usually measured against usd or gold etc, so if a value of land fetched 1000 usd and now would fetch 900 only due to depreciation of pkr then it would be plausiable that seller increase the price to keep the real value at 1000 usd

          What u think ?
            35 days ago 

            Ty Phoon
            (191 posts)
            YC, seller can demand anything for their land but problem is the buyer, in current circumstances people value gold and USD.
              35 days ago 

              Imtiaz
              (1114 posts)
              YC, as far as I understand.

              The ultimate scenario boils down to the fact if one is willing to buy at escalated price or no at land is a local commodity. Importantly, buyer/purchaser may have other lucrative options like saving in an appreciating currency or bulking up imported products.

              Ideally, yes a physical asset (Real Estate entity) in a state maintaining equilibrium with physical commodities like gold/resources or intl. currency. However, that is super idealistic and in a market like Pakistan that can rarely work. For real estate, its more like value addition on top of existing raw product (cost of land + development charges). Here its more like Stock Market scenario where non-existing real estate (in Files) can fluctuate on daily basis based on news/rumors, a strategy that BT mastered years ago and now backfiring (Phase 8 extension at standstill almost after 6+ yrs and BT KHI, some part of land that was sold in Files had to be surrendered to state after SC).

              Above all, this is Pakistan Pepsi outperforms Coke and then PM in queue publicly urging Nation to 'Do Hundi and avoid Banking Channels'...

              ----------------

              1. USD to Product/Service/Commodity Parity

              becomes relevant in an international transaction scenario, i.e., to keep up the value on par with whatever agreed upon exchange entity (USD/EUR/Barter etc. paid for asset purchased).

              2. Local Assets/Products/Services are Driven by Supply/Demand

              rather the Forex. However, more the value addition (with imported stuff), the price will automatically escalate regardless of the fact, if there is demand at such price or no. Plot price may remain stable, however, house constructed before devaluation will benefit due to increased market prices as a factor of devaluation.

              3. Foreign Investment

              One earning in lets say USD (or any pegged currency), will have a Black Friday Offer situation, if they like to purchase local asset in a state with devalued currency (more stuff for less bucks).

              4. Local Investment

              One earning in local currency will have somehow Pre-Christmas buying scenario with least benefit, if there are any due to supply-demand.
              ------------

              To conclude: I believe, land value only to appreciate if demand exceeds supply for whatever reasons. Plots and Constructed Units have different dynamic based on currency devaluation.

              I believe in short, taking a more common-man approach, if some currency value is increasing more then real estate, best bet is to save and when currency value stabilize invest then. In Pakistan, unfortunately not many attractive investment options, real estate becomes one of the hot favorites.
                35 days ago 

                Investor
                (162 posts)
                Wow Look at the Dollar Value. Worst decision ever made to invest in Pakistan from abroad. 3 Years of plot Price appreciation gone to waste.. Actually ending up losing money due to currency conversion.
                  35 days ago 

                  Imtiaz
                  (1114 posts)
                  Blood bath for PKR...
                    35 days ago 

                    Ali Nouman
                    (20 posts)
                    PKR destroyed forever. My 8 years of savings gone.
                      34 days ago 

                      Nadeem Ahmed
                      (4323 posts)
                      How is Pakistan's economy being Damage by PMLN ? | Sabir Shakir Analysis

                      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5fA_sP_CxnE
                        34 days ago 

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