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Hamad Raza
( 17 posts )

[175 Replies]
What are the comments of experts on the statement of chairman fbr. "property prices soon will come down!"

    118 days ago In Investors Advice
    Post Answer
    Aftab Khatta..
    (96 posts)
    Brothers, i know many PTI expats and when i asked them how much they invested in Expat investment bond, believe me, no one (out of almost 30 i asked).

    It is that Imran khan Sons is in UK and blaming other that they their family is in UK. So keep your eyes open. Now with current Kashmir situation, things will be bad as even China will not invest.

    I lost almost 50% of my investment in stock exchange in past few months but the good thing is that it is a small amount but i am thinking for the investors. They will be thinking to suicide by now.

    So remember, be extremely careful. Keep your money in US$ and try to go out of Pakistan.
      71 days ago 

      Isloo1
      (576 posts)
      Admin has deleted my post again without any justification. The post did not use any restricted words or target anyone personally.

      I only made a point on Riyadh's post that you can not separate politics from economy. And that admin is taking sides and closes threads where he sees his Comrades losing argument.

      Is this too obscene as a remark, or is it that the Umpire is playing as well????

        71 days ago 

        Isloo1
        (576 posts)
        Ali Kamran, we all face the same issue all the time. Looks like Zameen has made all English words restricted and only punctuation marks are allowed when a post is first submitted.
          71 days ago 

          Arshad
          (768 posts)
          There are 2 ways to look at it. Things could get better or things could get worse. If things get worse then no point in investing. If things get better than it could be worth investing, but signs indicate than even if things get better they will not get better soon, it fact they will get worse before they get better, so again no point in investing until the worst is over.

          Somebody mentioned about Chinese investment, however it seems all the drama was staged by internal actors to stop CPEC or at least to slow it down in order to get dollars from US into the hands of the people at the top, and now the public is paying the price, and Niazi is going around the world begging for money, in return for compromising national interest of the country. Only way to destroy the country is through the soviet union style.
            71 days ago 

            Zameen Admin
            (300 posts)
            Ali Kamran sab, Isloo1 sab, the posting issues have been resolved. You will now be able to post without any problems, hopefully. Do inform if you face any other issues.

            Of course the system will still be blocking any posts that trigger the offensive words filter, but we will keep an eye on them to approve asap any posts that mistakenly gets filtered out.
              71 days ago 

              Isloo1
              (576 posts)
              Thank you Admin. Would be nice if you can point us to Zameen forum's policy so that we know why a post is quashed or thread is closed. Arbitrary decisions are very frustrating, make us feel the froum is also under undeclared martial law.

              Ajab dastoor-e-zuban bandi hey keh
              baat key karnay ko tarasti hey zuban meri

                71 days ago 

                Ali Kamran
                (50 posts)
                Thank you admin, I can finally post this reply to Arshad sahab:

                My contention was precisely that things cannot possibly get worse, except for overseas Pakistanis who are already invested and currently holding their capital in real estate.

                The main problem is that the rupee has fallen (some estimate that it will fall even more). This is the primary reason why it's so bad for the overseas Pakistanis invested in real estate. As the rupees continues falling they keep on losing money. The same money that, invested elsewhere, would have been gaining value. Period. We can all agree that they will want it to stop falling. Honestly, we all would.

                But it doesn't seem likely any time soon. The government has made promises to IMF. They will let market dictate the value of Pakistani Rupee. I am no economist but, as far as I understand, it has two downsides: one is inflation, the other is what I already mentioned above, overseas Pakistanis losing the value of investments.

                At the same time, it has its upside too. Pakistani Rupee surely has some stable market value? Eventually, the rupee will fall to that and stabilize, as Isloo1 pointed out somewhere else today too. Particularly if the government can push through with its agenda of economic reform -- I honestly hope they are brave enough for it and don't take a u-turn under political pressure. Because that, in fact, will be death of economy in my opinion.

                Once all that reform and devaluation has come to pass, Pakistani rupee need not necessarily strengthen. We fear it because it raises our debt, makes import of oil expensive, etc, etc. But, at the end of the day, if Pakistani economy is aligned around these factors, it shouldn't be of much concern even if dollar is at 200, as long as it settles there.

                Though at the same time, Pakistani economy needs to strengthen. Because the previous governments feared all this so much, the losses now have been so huge. But eventually, once the bitter pill of losses and reform have been swallowed for a time, afterwards the same need not happen.

                Both these things that is, inflation and strengthening dollar raise price along with other factors: increased duties and taxes, and rising FBR rates. Still additionally, and at the same time, the value of real estate is falling for overseas Pakistanis, which will likely give them incentive to buy property, even if, initially, it is only for personal use.

                Based on all these factors, the prices of real estate (as against Pakistani Rupee) should not be falling anymore. If anything they will rise. The only question is when? 2 years is a fair estimation.

                At the end of the day, though, Arshad sahab may be quite close to the truth. However, I agree when Asad Umar says that the inflation rates (and hence the interest rates) will begin lowering within a year. Bank may not really be that great an option after that. At that point gold, long-term real estate, construction and development (construction sounds like a decent option even at present) may the good options.

                I may be wrong, but that is how I see things. If I am, I would love to hear a counter-argument. I joined here after being impressed by the knowledge and understanding you all have after all. And, by God, I really hope the government understands all the weird stuff it is pulling at the moment. Because all my thoughts and idea depend on that, lol
                  70 days ago 

                  Arshad
                  (768 posts)
                  Ali Kamran Sb



                  Welcome to the forum, and you have written a well tthought out argument. I cannot disagree on anything, you obviously have a good understanding of the subject.



                  On interest rates and inflation, inflation should in theory start falling in one years time, and if inflation falls then interest rates should also start falling which should boost economic activity and business. Inflation is a vicious circle, it leads to higher prices, which in turn will lead to higher wages, which in turn will lead to higher prices and so on, so it could drag on for longer. Inflation is effectively a tax on the poor and we reduce the value of their money and their earning, yet expect them to do the same amount of work.



                  However the real danger is devaluation. The only benefit of devaluation is if it leads to increased exports which boosts economic activity and foreeign exchange reseves, but in the case of Pakistan it never happens. So long as the rich do not pay adequate taxes, and the government finances the budget with borrowings and by printing money then the rupee could devalue more, and this could lead to continuing inflation and high interest rates.

                  Interests in the US if and when they ever rise again then it could stengthen the dollar and devalue currencies including Pakistan. We have a possible world recession on the horizon as well. Only silver lining I see would be if Chinese factories start shifting to Pakistan and if currency swap with China takes off, but current government sees its future tied to US, and expects a marshall plan for Pakistan from Trump, which is wishful thinking unless we become a puppet state for them and give up our soverignity.
                    70 days ago 

                    Ali Kamran
                    (50 posts)
                    I couldn't agree more, sir. On everything you said about inflation and devaluation. That the government won't actually pull through with the economic reform is my main fear as well.



                    And I don't see the point government sees in cozying up to the US right now either *smh* Unless, somehow, the establishment sees US serving Pakistan's interests better internationally. But how?
                      70 days ago 

                      Abdul Qayyum
                      (2043 posts)
                      Ali Karan sb
                      A well thought analysis with convincing logic behind. I think govt is serious to get the richer also in the tax net. Nobody will be able to escape if implementation is meaningful and the govt will is real.
                      That explains why business community is playing against the country’s economy by making strikes and raising hell on govt decisions. We all know who is behind: The same mafia we have been living with for decades!
                      I think, you are the 1st one here showing both sides of the coin.

                      Welcome aboard, sir and keep us enlightening out of your positive wisdom.
                        70 days ago 

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