How does 2015 look?

Lot is happening in and around Pakistan. Political front cooled down after PTI’s dharna packed up; war on terror intensified after Peshawar incident, economic indicators getting better and rupee gaining strength; oil price down; and dubai stock market crashed. How do you think our real estate market will respond to these changes. Any expert opinion?

Seems like a slow year as well with no revival of the market. The favorable conditions are not backed on solid grounds and are short lived. Other than that development has been delayed in most parts and maybe foreseen to take a long time to materialize. Late 2016 would bring some good news maybe. I think PTI looking forward to start dharna again and yes even Dubai real estate also seeing a downward trend due to reduced oil prices.

Arshad: there have been talks about flight of capital to more lucrative and growing real estate markets such as Dubai. Do you see this capital returning home triggering developments and new fast paced projects?

Isn’t it so that a lot depens on DHA, Bahria, CDA and development authorities to jump start the property market? If they have good projects and can deliver on ongoing projects, than market will improve?

Pakistan need peace ,and quick justice system all over the country, no offender should escape the law, and the law must get rid of all the loopholes .

ONLY then economy will improve ,and real estate will boom.

AS OF NOW ,very dim chances of any rosiness ,and 2015 LOOKS AS FLAT as was 2014.

NO pessimistic thinking behind this view ,just what i feel ,i say it .

Looks like another year of correction

Gurus of Lahore saying 2015 will little better than 14 , but 2016 is year of bubble and after that burst coming for few years.

2014 Correction phase overcome abnormalities in prices now another bubble in coming year only can brought bubble burst , right now its year of investment for hope of bubble or steady improvment over time , it is highly unlikely that oil price , electricity prices cut down to half , if happened than prices can go down bit but currently taxes increasing so does values of property , beside this what happen in Dubai property or USA wont affect something to talk about effects in Pakistan.

So much decline in oil prices in international market won affected oil price here that much so does our isue of lack of energy resource never make electricity cheap and govt reling on taxes so property highly unlikly go down but these taxes no doubt increase trouble for seller to buyer as govt is our partner in everything now

2015 will be the same as 2014 with more risk pointing to a correction rather then an increase. Lower oil prices is good news for net oil importing countries like Pakistan. However, this is only if the benefit is passed on to the consumers who then go further and spend it. Those in power will use their full potential to mismanage this opportunity. They are laying LNG pipelines lol. The whole point of LNG is that you cool is so that you can carry 600 times more gas in liquid form then you could in gas.

A yellow taxi scheme mentality can never grow beyond it.

Yes asad is right. And capital returning from Dubai even their real estate market is down seems unlikely due to unstable conditions in Pakistan. It is just like when CDA announces to start a pending development work, it has become a perception that they are offering another lollipop due to their poor credibility. So are overseas who are NOW reluctant to invest in real estate of Pakistan. Also if their investment is stuck their then they would prefer to wait rather than jump into a new market all of a sudden considering the year 2015. I think right now better economic conditions, strengthening rupee would not matter as much as timely completion of a commitment would. Investor confidence would heavily depend on it and almost everyone this seems a big issue now.

How oil prices can effect real estate of Pakistan directly or indirectly?

Dear IsIoo,

In 2013 the housing recovery was a welcome bright spot for the economy prices were shooting up.It was not in 2014

despite the slower pace of price increases,home afford ability were decline.predicting real estate prices is like predicting stock market prices.

Big real estate names failed in 2014.

1:Multi is badly declined.

2:CDA some declined and some stable and some increase.

3:Bahria Enclave2 declined.

4:Dha valley badly declined.

5:All Bahria and Dha Extensions declined.

6:Dha phase2 stable.

7:Bahria phase8 possession area was stable and some area declined.

8:Gulberg was increase and only some blocks declined.

it's just my opinion 2015 to 2016 is good for B-17 MA will be complete inshAllah,Gulberg,Dha phase2 K,L,M,N,P,Bahria phase8,Bahria Enclave1,CDA I sectors will be improve.

Regards

In 2013 almost everyone purchase some property if you see around yourself your friends and family must have purchased something that's why property prices jump such height.



Now after 1 year of corrections phase people have their money and now you will listen people seeking investment advice that they want to invest again .sign the people have some money and willingness to go for property. This will again provoke investors. And same cycle again .is not year of boom but very much stable prices as they were in DEC 2013 is expected

The reason I see association between Dubai stock market crash and real estate boom in Pak is from 2008-9 incidence when a panic button was triggered causing bubble burst. This was followed by RE market boom in Pak that peaked in 2013. Looking at this pattern, I am tempted to find a logical sequence like this: Oil prices have already hit Dubai stock exchange, this will eventually hit RE sector causing slow down in property buying if not crash. This slow down will force our big RE tycoons to pull out investments from Dubai and play little “games” inland before money finds its way out to some other lucrative ventures. We live in a global village and money finds no borders. That’s why I think we shall see a temporary return of capital that will go in speculative RE investments than real sectors like industry, etc. Therefore, I see RE market revival in 2015.

Arshad, I agree with your assertion about CDA which is not in the equation anymore. RE sector has become more vibrant and dynamic for CDA to measure up with its old bureaucratic and sluggish processes. And besides, all CDA officers and staff upto peon level are busy making money with these “games” so why would they bother to make their institution compete. Instead they use it in their own personal vested interests.

Nadeem Bhai, in a booming RE market everything moves up including prices, new projects and house construction, everything enters fast pace. Let’s see if 2015 brings us general market revival or is it just up and down here and there depending who does well.

Dup

Decreasing oil prices should eventually reduce inflation but has inflation reduced in Pakistan? there has been a global reduction in oil prices of almost 30% since June. A reduction in oil prices or end products that directly relate to oil cannot be overlooked against other non-oil goods because pakistan is not the source of oil production. Reduced oil prices should bring in more purchasing power to the consumers who can buy property etc. And it does not seem likely. Strengthening rupee will make investments for overseas investors expensive as now they would have to bring in more money than before to buy a property here added with increased taxes. It maybe possible yet the investments move in from Dubai to Pakistan but it cannot be predicted for sure due to the prevailing instability in Pakistan. I think late 2016 or early to mid 2017 would see some good change as some major infrastructural projects would be nearing completion and may change things.

@Isloo , don't you think that ,trust of the common investors was badly shaken in 2013, and market is generally mushroomed by these small investors.

So how can their trust be restored in big brands again, especially the places where they lost huge money?

Yes market will revive a bit ,but only in steady moving reputable and those projects or societies ,still untouched by dirty big gamblers.

I don't think Bahria , CDA ,Multi,DHA Valley can click upwards,only DHA and some others , have some chances in 2015.

I am just viewing pindi/Islamabad real estate.