Devaluation of pakistani currency

@Imtiaz

Brother in how many years do you think I-16 will be liveable?

I asking this because i also considering it as a option to make my house.

Thank you all for your contributions!! and Abdul Qayyum sb for being here as the guru. Its the spirit of the community-driven knowledge in which we all educate and learn from each other at the same time.

@ali - I-16 is livable as of now but for sure it needs more development to make it comfortable and practical. In particular, 16/2 many houses constructed and families living while 16/4 getting into shape with a few houses.

- Positives are Gas, Electricity and Water availability.

- Negatives are broken roads, lack of commercial activities and less population.

I believe I-16 has a progressive future and development with

- Good returns on investment in a time frame from 1 - 5 years from now.

- For livability I would say it will be probably 3+ years where I-16 start to be in a shape like I-14 now where construction is getting momentum and population growing.

More than the sector development itself (apart from PHA flats), major influence will be the external factors from neighboring societies, I-17 as medical city and possible access from RRR.

Salman in 4 million for home construction, considering RWP-ISB my suggestion would be:


- Gulberg Residencia (Block F, I, V) - 7 Marla Possession Plot

- I-16/2 or I-16/4 - 5 Marla Possession Plot

- Phase 8 (Safari Valley) - 7 Marla Possession Plot

- CBR-2 (Block A to D) - 1 Kanal Possession

- MPCHS B-17 (Block E) - 7 Marla Possession.

Let me clear your concept like this my bro… Select two societies in Islamabad… Say… F-10 and E-11… You invested 1 million dollar in 2013 in these two sectors especially commercial… Now in 2018 you will not be able to buy the same property with 1.5 million $ in 2018… Or brother you can investigate further what I have told you above…

Aaaannnd Pakistani Rupee continues to nose dive!..

New Lows against USD

Unfortunately and that too even before going to the IMF who demands approx 150 PKR/USD. Even worst, Indian Rupee now has a value double than PKR.

This was inevitable. When you talk of " Riasat e Madina" and"
ایاک نعبد و اایاک نستعین
You have to embrace the repercussions!
No one in the latest history of Muslim countries showed this bravery of talking what is a forbidden land for all.
In Zimbabwe the govt took steps in the interest of Nation and Zimbabwe net worth (including the central bank and all country's banks was equal to just...Yes...just 5 US Dollars.
This was the consequence of expelling the white landlords who have been capturing whole agri resources of the country.
Imran Khan is talking justice for neglected souls and elite class would go to whatever possible to take him to failure.
The developed world is surviving on poor countries " corrupt" mafia (with IMF and other finance houses) and they would also go to whatever they could to make bends in Pakistan economy.
In Shaa Allah state will survive and corrupt mafia along with their bosses will have to see our country's good time.

In shaa Allah...

Regards

Respected Abdul Qayoom sahib, I have followed Mugabe for couple of years.... He is a good soul but he has not been a great leader because he could not take his country out of the crisis of worst economy....He ruled the Zimbabwe for a long time ..... I love his quotes and he got great brainy quotes...google his quotes and you would love it.... :)

Immi has a great past performance and I am sure he would emerge victorious....

Ilyas sb.
When a nation is brought down to begging status, the job of controlling corporate mafia becomes very easy!
If IK could honour only 50% of his promises, our country is on developing path.
Corruption is an integral part of established democracy and if it could be brought down to a single digit of gdp, states always prosper.
Our problem, we have been put up with dudes for the last 03 decades who are mindless, ghairatless and all " Lesses" which could possibly be tagged to this bunch of stupids who even do not know what is meant by public service?

Totally agree with imtiaz , Its very tricky when it comes to relation with real estate vs Dollar. It all depends upon the where you invest and how much gain you have made vs Ruppee devaluation. For example a person invested in B-17 last year in E block gained 30% vs Dollar gain of opprox 20%.

On the other side if you have invested in other society lets say DHA 2 A,B sectors which are already matured sectors then their gain was 10% vs Dollar gain of 20%. So it all depends upon your calculation calculation.

Good collective insights by all to keep and all important discussion going.

Regarding the topic on devaluation of the currency, lets put the figures in perspective for the most recent dip in the value of the PKR.

Aug 17, a day before IK took oath as the PM, 1 USD in Inter Bank was valued are 124.05 PKR. Now in 100 days USD has climbed up by 15 PKR (15 extra PKR in 1 USD & PKR lost 12.1% of its value to USD).

Since Aug 17, 2018 - Last 100 days

------ PKR Devaluation ------

  • Loosers
  1. Importers and Public that used imported goods/services are paying 15 PKR extra for each 1 USD dollar of any import.

  2. Government spending 15 PKR extra on external debt servicing.

  • Winners
  1. Exporters with 15 PKR less for each single USD to be paid by the consumer for exported goods.

  2. USD Account Holders with increase of 15 PKR for each USD resting in their account.

  3. Overseas Remittances with 15 PKR for each USD send back to Pakistan but due to utilization of that amount in PAK can be somehow neutralised due to weaker PKR.


Since Aug 17, 2018 - Last 100 days

------ Trade/Fiscal Deficit ------

Imports: Goods + Services = 21.32 Billion USD

Exports: Goods + Services = 9.72 Billion USD

** Trade Deficit = Imports - Exports = 11.6 Billion USD

** Fiscal Deficit = Trade Deficit - Remittances - Foreign Direct Investment

Fiscal Deficit= 9.72 - 7.42 - 0.6 = 4.8 Billion USD.

*** Each month our economy loosing 1.2 billion USD ***


Good collective insights by all to keep and all important discussion going.

Regarding the topic on devaluation of the currency, lets put the figures in perspective for the most recent dip in the value of the PKR.

Aug 17, a day before IK took oath as the PM, 1 USD in Inter Bank was valued are 124.05 PKR. Now in 100 days USD has climbed up by 15 PKR (15 extra PKR in 1 USD & PKR lost 12.1% of its value to USD).

Since Aug 17, 2018 - Last 100 days

------ PKR Devaluation ------

- Loosers
1. Importers and Public that used imported goods/services are paying 15 PKR extra for each 1 USD dollar of any import.

2. Government spending 15 PKR extra on external debt servicing.

- Winners

1. Exporters with increased exports where 15 PKR less to be paid for each single USD by the foreign consumer for exported goods.

2. USD Account Holders with increase of 15 PKR for each USD resting in their account.

3. Overseas Remittances with 15 PKR for each USD send back to Pakistan but due to utilization of that amount in PAK can be somehow neutralised due to weaker PKR.

------------------------------------------------------

Since Aug 17, 2018 - Last 100 days

------ Trade/Fiscal Deficit ------
Imports: Goods + Services = 21.32 Billion USD

Exports: Goods + Services = 9.72 Billion USD

** Trade Deficit = Imports - Exports = 11.6 Billion USD

** Fiscal Deficit = Trade Deficit - Remittances - Foreign Direct Investment

Fiscal Deficit= 9.72 - 7.42 - 0.6 = 4.8 Billion USD.

*** Each month our economy loosing 1.2 billion USD ***

Some interesting predictions, may or may not come true.


Prediction in 1 years is approx 164 PKR/USD, if that comes true than 4 years prediction will most likely become a reality with approx 192PKR/USD.


USD to PKR Forecast, Dollar to Pakistani Rupee Currency Rate Prediction: Is "United States Dollar / Pakistani Rupee" Pair a Good Investment?


https://walletinvestor.com/forex-forecast/usd-pkr-prediction


----------
- Will Dollar to Pakistani Rupee rate grow / rise / go up?

Yes. The USD/PKR rate can go up from 139.089 to 164.316 in one year.



- Is it profitable to invest in USD/PKR Forex pair?



Yes. The long-term earning potential is +18.14% in one year.


- Will Dollar to Pakistani Rupee rate fall / drop?

No (see above).



- What will USD/PKR FX rate be worth in five years (2023)?

The USD/PKR (USDPKR ) future rate will be 192.552 .

It is laughable and shockable and poor MATHEMATICAL CALCULATIONS to suggest pakies to keep $ with the hope to earn with it..... We need to learn maths please......

My all respected brothers who do not understand MATHEMATICS, I would recommend you to read and understand the following Golden words please.......

" PAPER MONEY EVENTUALLY RETURNS TO ITS INTRINSIC VALUE- ZERO"

"THE OLD GUY HAD BEEN TRYING TO LIGHT HIS FIRE WITH PAPER MONEY"........

MAY ALLAH GUIDE AND PROTECT US.....

WHY was 2008 recession not predicted that dashed the world economy to ground? It is not wise to compare paper money with the realty please please…

What if the $ sinks in couple of days or weeks? How would you weigh your realty then in Pakistan?

Sir - for your longer posts, I would say one word from the start of my previous post will suffice, i.e., 'PREDICTION' --> FORECASTS that may or may not happen.

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*Sir as you wrote: "poor MATHEMATICAL CALCULATIONS to suggest"

i) In my case, I am not 'SUGGESTING' to anyone, in fact in the start of this threads I expressed my views about attaining real estate rather than cash. Here I am just 'EXPRESSING' the alternative view that is a reality and that reality has grown by 12.1% in its values over last 100 or so days.

ii) Death as a natural phenomenon can get anyone/anywhere/anytime. Still people like to predict, manage and calculate life decisions for years in advance.

*
Your sentence "PAPER MONEY EVENTUALLY RETURNS TO ITS INTRINSIC VALUE- ZERO"

i) Complete words/context is a must to state the facts, otherwise that doesn't lead to anything meaningful. It may happen in Socialism, perhaps and in barter system but not in Transaction driven environment.

ii) If you Domestic production becomes zero your currency can crash to 0, not otherwise.

** Your sentence "WHY was 2008 recession not predicted that dashed the world economy to ground?"

i) Simple fact should not be missed that not 100/100 times economic growth is proportional to strong currency. China also devalues its currency to get increased exports that strengthens its economy & exports.

ii) For your information, people did predict and googling helps. At-least one example, I can share with you.

https://www.businessinsider.com/jim-rickards-interview-global-financial-crisis-gold-fed-2017-11

EU was the one that was badly hit due to the fact that EU tried to manage almost all major EU states, despite different economic dynamics, with a single currency, i.e., EURO. As a matter of fact, it must be a basic sense recession does not just happen on daily utilized goods and services it hits real estate too like many other sectors. In the EU due to the recession one of the badly hit sector was 'REAL Estate'. A simplest example, the room on rent for EUR 450 - 490 a month was down to 325 a month in 3 months time and house on sale for 2.5M Euro was down to 2M in about 6 months time. People were unable to pay even their mortgages due to unemployment and rising interest rates. In Spain (one of the worst hits of recession) some were unable to pay mortgage and retain their properties and a few even committed the suicide. I mean isn't it a common sense too that when economy shrinks so does the real estate investments/prices. I am yet to see a single example where recession is happening and real estate is growing, if there is one would be good to analye that.

** Your sentence "What if the $ sinks in couple of days or weeks? How would you weigh your realty then in Pakistan?"

i) What is if doesn't? and

ii) CASH (in USD) is the word that suggests it is the most liquid asset in the world. Its not going to crash overnight. IF and whenever it starts to happen just utilise it/exchange it. For example, I wanna get rid of USD I can get up and go to any good/service provider to exchange my dollar for some asset or service. Real estate is not that liquid as of now.

Unless Petro-Dollar relation and international transaction in USD are declined USD (fortunately or unfortunately) will flourish...
-------------------

In this forum, based on my limited knowledge, I have favored for both REAL ESTATE vs CASH (in USD). The reality is in last 100 days USD has grown by > 12%, I am not sure if the local real estate has made such growth across the board. Reality cant be denied.

I would like to know, where exactly are ''poor MATHEMATICAL CALCULATIONS'', any specific example?

I try my best to put forward figures and facts with an open acknowledgement that these are personal views and I stand corrected on them based on facts/figures but definitely not on just some random words/statements :)

I wrote 29 days ago...

[QUOTE] This country is ruled by most incompetent lot, which is not just tabdeeli sarkar, but also those at the helm pulling the strings.

The economy has nose dived since mid last year and the bottom is yet to come. So my dear Investor, it pains me to say that rupee is further going to sink as the tabdeeli sarkar is bringing back empty begging bowl from China. I would be happy if it stops at 150.? [UNQUOTE]

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I have nothing to add, just wait and watch and protect your hard-earned money.

Inki Cheekhein Niklein Gi, Mein Inko Naheen Chorron Ga

~ PM Imran Khan (August 19th, 2018 at PM House Islamabad)


Very happy to hear people crying and complaining over this forum. It only means all is going in the right direction.