@Asad, I most SINCERELY hope and PRAY it happens as you say.
Gents being an Optimist or Pessimist could be a preference (because desires say so), being Realist must be a compulsion (because data reflects so).
IMF Projection for Percentage Growth of GDPs:
Region: 2021 | 2022
- Global: 5.5 | 4.2
- PRC: 8.10 | 5.6
- IND: 11.5 | 6.0
- PAK: 1.5 | 4.0
- BDH: 4.4 | 7.9
@Imtiaz
Projections work as per fiscal year which is usually June of Year X till June of Year X+1... Pakistan's growth for fiscal year 2020-2021 (which is finishing) is 1.5%... For next fiscal year it is 4% and for the one after that it is 5.5% . So your comparison is slightly incorrect, it should say PAK: 4.0|5.5
Note that we are one of the few countries that have a positive growth during corona times... Our economy has done quite well in such difficult times.
Asad sb, thanks for adding.
Yes FY cycle is Jun-Jun, the subsequent years. The above data, as per Calander Yaer, i.e., Jan-Dec.
Factual Correction: However, still, 2021-2022 FY GDP is not 5.5. (per IMF and independent evaluators)
** Its our Govt. ambition, target to make it grow to 5.5 that too by end 2023
Here are the 10 years data, 2016 - 2025 (2021 and beyond anything is a projection)
4.56, 5.22, 5.53, 1.91, -0.39, 1.5, 4.05, 4.52, 5.0, 5.2
As you can see, independent projection (not Govt. of Pakistan) projects it to be at 5.0 by the end of years 2024 or lets say mid of FY 2024-2025
=============
I would like, if you please share and that for sure enlighten myself and other forumers too. As things stand now PAK
- fell from 5.5+ to 1.9 (pre-COVID),
- reached -0.34 (during COVID),
- stand somewhere at 1 - 1.5 as of now
Neighboring mainstream countries have a rebound in 2021 much higher!
Dear All,
Please read all the comments under the subject " Devaluation of Pakistani currency" since November 2018..... This is very interesting topic for the buck($) lovers vs Real estate..... The discussion will prove you " who is who & what is what"........ Very important lessons are there.....
Some one now starts accepting "dar" was maintaining rupee value artificially, earlier was saying its not carrot, or wheat to maintain fake values :)
slowly slowly will accept other realities also.
Ilyas Khana, welcomeback !
in curency matters Here no one is arasto to listen to always, i was in plan of investing again in pakiatsn but could not travel so I transfered some bucks few months back in Naya Pakistan shariya certificates, it will be mature in this month.
giving me currency correction 8% plus 10% profit. now will invest in property or otherwise will fix for another 6 months.
If was listening prediction of 185 , then gai Bhains pani me.
Same thread, same folks, just 838 days apart:
==================
I wrote:
"Some interesting predictions, may or may not come true.
Prediction in 1 years is approx 164 PKR/USD, if that comes true than 4 years prediction will most likely become a reality with approx 192PKR/USD."
https://www.zameen.com/forum/discussions/buying_property/devaluation_of_pakistani_currency-30943-9.html
=================
Fast Forward 2 Years!! now beat that prediction!!!
Yes, you read that Right, Predicted that to 164 in 1 Year Frame 838 Days (approximately 2 years back) Follow the Link to Double Check.
You can say Thanks or Sorry later on, whichever you prefer as one of them becomes due :)
Sohail Khana wroora manana, i have been around but i do not see you around.... I do not know sharia certificate or something like that but in long terms that is mathematical suicide when compared with a standard currency..... In Pak, nothing works other than real estate or if you have a unique idea...... On your next visit to pak, please pay a visit to DHA Peshawar and multi orchards and residencia AWAIN(da maza da para)............
& Take advices of Nadeem sahib as well He is all times guru and very honest soul i have ever seen before.....
For investment in currency... the only time you can earn in short time is when the THRONE in Pakistan is about to change.....
Cheaper dollar rate ko chatein jab GDP growth hi negative hai and unemployment is on rise and industry is on a decline.
Think this
It is always good to keep some bucks in shariah compliant investment schemes. It gives dividend and higher liquidity, that is, you can encash whenever needed. Property gives higher returns, only if bought and sold at the right time. But then your money is stuck for a long time and you can not draw a single penny from your plots worth crores until sold.
CASH IS KING.
as they say.
Imran Brother, among all these technicalities of Currency and Economics ...
At times, its good to pretend to be a Cult Follower with Ultimate Claim:
صاحب اگر معیشت تباہ کر رھے ھیں تو کچھ سوچ کر ھی کر رھے ھونگے ...
(End of Story)
@ Isloo, agreed cash is king :)
some properties needs ages to be liquified, so what's the benefit of such values.
I was used to have one senior Indian friend with me in the company, he was just trusting the cash and cash only. He invested all his earnings in such calculative way that till the age of 90 he will be getting the decent monthly cash income to have a comfortable life including unforeseen situations and may leave some bucks also for his kids before dying.
We being Muslims cannot do this but also important to have some in liquid form also.
Since they are around now in UAE, it is famous about Jewish that they never struck their money in properties for long, they just act like bees to suck the juice of the flowers and fly to other one,
so any countries launching dollar bounds or any desperate interest rates or stocks exchange are their targets, otherwise the business of their own.
we are sitting waiting appreciation of B-17 from 20 years in the HOPE one day MA will be completed :)
Wa zamoonga Sohail Khana,
Sometimes i come to a conclusion that life is nothing but a math........Your indian friend will enjoy milk even at the age of 90 but he will not have the cow or will have not control of the cow...... Instead of buying cow for others and he enjoys milk only, Why should he not buy cow himself and then hire a man to feed the cow?????? ( matlab mi da da, Why should he not buy a shop or commercial unit and enjoy the rent for the rest of life and he can shuffle the investment once matured or keep enjoying the milk while having control of the Cow).........Why should others enjoy his hard earned money and just taste the milk which is adulterated with water, Chemicals and much more..........
In my life experience " NO ONE WILL EARN FOR YOU EXCEPT YOU"
or i will quote a kafir baba ji
" THERE IS NOT SUCH THING AS FREE LUNCH"
You can follow Indian uncle ji or Jew, Our cousins, but in your own Mathematics wisely..........
Sohail Khana sta ov da Isloo Naghd maal khwakh da… translate it for isloo as you please…
""""we are sitting waiting appreciation of B-17 from 20 years in the HOPE one day MA will be completed :)""""""""
WAYI DA GHAREEB MOOLA PA AZAAN SOOK ROOJA NA MAATAWAI(Translae it for isloo in Gulabi urdu please)......
In 2018 or 2019, I had requested you to visit F commercials of B-17, In those days the OWN was 40 lac, Now it is around 3 to 4 caror for 10 marla Markaz Plot........... :D
Ilyas bro, My Maths is simple, it is 70-30 rule. Put 70% in long-term (10+ years) with part of it in rental property, and rest 30% in more "liquid" options, such as: mutual funds, stocks, bonds (of course, non-interest based) or foreign currency and gold.
Property investment returns are non-linear. They move with triggers. Maybe you get 10% increase in 10 years, and 100% in just 1 year. Its all about price drivers. So when you do your maths, place these triggers on timeline with an anticipated percentage value of increase. Assign likelihood (probability) to each trigger. That will give you good base for buy/selling timing.
We all do this maths intuitively. It would be fun if someone comes up with an equation for this. (I am sure there already exist such formula, perhaps some financial expert here can enlighten us).
Isloo bubba, If you are keeping the 30% for the rainy days in any form and readily available when needed then i am fine with that.... But i never derived an effective formula for long terms investment in mutual funds etc and i got a big No....A man had dumped his buck in fixed deposit in 2012 and when i calculated the end result in 2020 so he was standing in the same shoes as in 2012...
Stock is a big game on Trump's planet..... That needs pretty knowledge, experience and patience....
Mathematical equation? Each individual will have to drive own empirical formula because my IF may be your BUT and vice versa.....
Dear Brother Isloo1,
Can you please explain/simplify the terms triggers and probability etc to get an idea of buying selling time.
It’s quite informative but I could not understand how to use it practically.