In short, there are many more factors that can be analysed such as DHA lahore is going to announce posession in few blocks in phase 8 & 9. ballot in DHA gujranwala s due befre december 2021. DHA quetta is going to announce commercial Plots. Bahria town is going to launch new blocks in BTK BTR & BTL sooner. Furthernore bahria peshawar is still awaiting bciz they are still in a phase to hire & train the employees there. Such individual events are also important in real estate sector.
Best reply of the day Humayyun Raja sab.Hope for best in real estae inshAllah.
Regards
Hamayun brother, thanks for detailed point-by-point insights that read interesting (though in general, rather than budgetary stuff) but many of them seem valid and well done. Just a few facts:
- Low Cost Housing/PHA/Employment etc. is a political promise and such promises are more in news than on the ground. PKR stating to loose and that's always a tricky situation as far as remittances and overseas inflow in RE. Bank finances gets a mention here and there but nothing concrete. Those who make policies don't ned financing and those who need it unfortunately have no say in policy so that's again theoretical stuff rather than practicality.
on a lighter note:
" Furthernore bahria peshawar is still awaiting bciz they are still in a phase to hire & train the employees there."
MR sb say bol dain takulf aur kharcha an hi kerain tu behtar hai... (acha mashwara tu day saktay hain hum bhi)
Nadeem bhai thanx alot.
Imtiaz bhai budget is not only a single hour speech by FM. But a complete policy. Although major changes are announced in the speech. But budget policy covers all the fiscal policies to run the country troughout an year. So brother dont limit it within a speech only.
Secondly either its political slogan or they are willing to implement it at all, it will translate hiw they performed.
So at the current, these slogans are te part of fiscal policy and it has the tendency to produce some profits.
in the last, im a common man who cannot convey your msg to Malik Riaz. So we can leave it to him. :D
Well thanx for appreciatin imtiaz bhai.
Welcome Hamayun Brother, I do appreciate the energy with which you share/express, need more of that on such forums. Keep that up!
Budget for sure is more than a speech. The point was, many of those points seem legit but they are pretty much promises/steps/intentions from quite some time in the past, well before any word on FY 2021-22 Budget.
Oh your greatness imtiaz bhai. Thanks once again.
Yes brother budgets are the words plus words of past, promises, targets , goals & political slogans. Let me explain you with an example.
Keeping the tax rate same for the salaried persons is the part of this budget that was introduced in specific slabs in past. So words of the pasts continuing in the current year are also part of the budget.
Similarly GST of 17% in general is also the digit in budget coming since years. Hence these all together make an impact on economy. It doesnt matter if it is present, past or future. Bcoz all of them are the part of a budget.
Hamayun brother thats more like a financial/economic policy rather than Budgerty Measures (Fiscal Policy). Economic Policies may get change or remain stable during each Budget Cycle (ideally 5). Budget proposal for FY-21/22 does continue some old measures for RE (fair enough to hold them) if they have worked in past but as far as something significant/new in RE? that's not because this time around it favours more the Auto Sector.
On a similar note: Interesting Read on how inflations affects RE in PAK
https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/Pakistan/Price-History
Dear imtiaz bhai.
Economic policy has two constituents. Fiscal policy & monetary policy. They both together make economic policy. In pakistan, & many other countries, finance minister is the driver. So they all are rotating around the same thing.
Although you are trying too much to differentiate, but still not successful. :D lolzzz
Anyways, the budget deals with all sectors & industries, during a complete year. To favour the auto sector, govt is going to announce new auto-policy within a week.
For gvt emloyees, increment in salaries & pensions has the more importance.
For youngsters in the college & universities, tax on mobile usage is an important news.
And similarly this is only an automobile budget for few people in pakistan. I wish all of them a very happy new car in their garrage. :D
Well this was on a lighter note imtiaz bhai.
Dear Humayyun, thanks for a thorough analysis of the budget and it's impact on real estate sector. I am glad to see an economist on board, shows there's lot to learn for a layman like myself.
However, my take on the budget is that this is like elephant tusk (hathi key daant khanay kay aur dikhanay kay aur). Meaning, they've made this toothless budget just to pacify outraged public and to counter opposition and Tarin group's move to quash it. And once passed, then the real budget will be unveiled gradually. Where Rs.30-50 increase on petrol, Rs.5-6 on eletricity and new taxes to meet 5800 bn target are on the cards. This will open new flood gates of inflation that'll wash away poors completely.
Real estate has enjoyed it's roller coaster ride amidst amnesty to whiten black money, which buddies have done in billions. Further inflow of black or grey money into RE is less likely.
Sky rocketing construction costs will impede housing. This is partly due to COVID-restricted import shipments of materials. So until it opens, cost will remain out of reach of most and put a reverse gear to construction activity.
New infrastructure development is seriously hampered due to incompetencies of this regime. So any major impact on prices because of new roads will stay low. But they'll continue to dream about mega billion dollars of their bedouin buddies flowing into Ravi River front, Walton Airport and Karachi islands like schemes.
What is the indication about devaluation/appreciation of Pak Rupee against USD in near and far future? This is a significant question for overseas Pakistanis.
@Hamad, rupee decline has halted at the moment and expected to remain contant in near future. Though budget impact is yet to be seen as markets open on Monday, however, since there is nothing substantive in the budget, so no major change in exchange rate is likely. On the other hand, mega increase in fuel and electricity prices (as already agreed with IMF) can put pressure on exports that in turn can destabilize rupee.
Secondly, as travel opens, it will increase dollar demand on the one hand and re-activate hawala-hundi on the other. Hundi will reduce current high remittance levels. Which means, govt will have less dollars to keep rupee afloat.
Humayyun sb
An impressive, educative & realistic insight towards the budget, which needs time, nerves & an un-biased approach analyzing the figures jargon, making it simple for a layman's understanding. This budget will further provide oxygen to the real estate & construction industry which affects some 30 + industries.
All walks of life, are commenting positive on the budget as in Corona led economy, this was only possible for the govt.
Only few determined minds are commenting mindlessly without any intellectual/rational approach.
One " Arastoo" said:
Expats are stupids, not knowing the real situation in the country?
This Arastoo, seems foolishly ignorant of the fact that expats contribution to run the Pak economy has become a vital factor.
Thanks a lot sir & keep us educating.
Hamayun brother, let me slightly fix that:
Classical Pillars/Constituents of Economic Policy:
Monetary policy + Fiscal policy + Micro/Macro-economic policy + (Labour) market policy + Tariff/trade policy
Well each of it is fundamental but if you ask me (though I am not an economist by any means) it's the Micro/Macro policy that you are primilar referring to with lasting impact over a fiscal cycle or let's say whatever duration of a economic policy.
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Hamad sb, on a similar topic my stance (earlier response on same thread) was that the real valuation of PKR will be indicated by Jun 11/12 and we can see market closed on Friday (Jun 12) Eve with USD rising against PKR highest in last 3 montgs to 156 and it stood at same rate as that on March 20.
Ultimate decider for long term fate of PKR will be Jun 30. Once the budget gets formally approved it will reflect what's in it for Awam and what for IMF. If it goes on Awam side PKR most likely to drop, of it's for IMF PKR may remain stable but more imcremntal taxation, development cuts, rising electricity tarrifs etc. etc.
I have been an advocate of Amnesty Schemes unless very clear laundering. Every inflowing USD helps and should be facilitated.
Swiss model is a ready made specimen to be tailored and followed.
However, the usual spit swallow of this lot who threatned those who avail-off the amnesty while being offered in 2018 by PML. Here is the stance than:
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www.samaa.tv/news/2018/04/imran-khan-criticizes-govts-tax-amnesty-scheme/amp/
Imran Khan has said that an investigation will be held against those who sought tax amnesty.
The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf chairman said that his party rejects the federal government’s tax amnesty scheme. “First they steal money then introduce tax amnesty schemes,” Khan added.
Guess what: Being a Typical Puppet he widhtdrew that in 2019 and reintroduced that in 2020. Pretty much like he used to curse projects of previous Govt. and now shamelessly inaugurates them once more.
Thank you Ilyas bro for a very useful pointer. (On a lighter note) I think if we beg too hard IMF Sarkar will allow this extension. After all, no one beats immi in begging (he says himself).
" Amnesty scheme is good: Amnesty is bad...by the same mindset?
Why not we are able to analyze " cause & effects in the interest of the motherland", no matter it is from " selected" or from a " one's Saint"?
Why we got to be religiously negative on good steps/good decisions, of a person whom we hate on personal grounds?
Is it a healthy way of life...even if good amount of bucks coming into one's pocket?
Pls. do highlight who said it's Good & Bad. Yes thats none other than Mr. Niazi ...
Get the facts right before mud sling due to personal grudges!