Relationship between Rental Value and Sale Value of a house in Islamabad
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There are various ways value of a house may be determined, one simple method is cost plus i.e. Market value of a plot on date of sale and construction cost with addition of a reasonable margin on date of sale. This method is more useful for new construction but would get trickier for a house that is not brand new. An easier method will be multiplies of rental value which has been described below.
The relationship, if any, between value of a house and the rental it fetches is an interesting one. It’s not rocket science to guess that value of a house is directly proportional to rental value however question remains if there is any way we could guess the value of a house based on the rental. The answer is yes and will be discussed in below line.
Value of a property could be measured as the numbers of years it takes to make value at the rate of current rental; this could also be called multiples of yearly rental and may be referred as Value to Rental Ratio (VRR). For Example current value of a house is 10 million and monthly rental is 50,000 then the rental will take 200 months or 19 years and 8 months (roughly 20 years) to generate 10 million. We could say that the value is 19 multiples of rental.
Having discussed multiples in above lines let’s see what factors determine the number of multiples a property is expected to have. The answer to this question depends on location, condition and demand for property at any point of time. Good location, nice condition and high demand would been top dollar whereas the value will start to decrease as the location and condition is bad and demand is low.
Ideal location, good condition and high demand could fetch as much lower range will be 25. Average location, condition and demand could be anywhere from 20 to 24 and then the value keeps going down. However very seldom the value will be lower than multiples of 15. Below is the summary in tabular form.
Location Condition Demand Value in multiples of Yearly Rental (VRR)
Excellent Y Y Y 25 to 30
Average Y Y Y 20 to 24
Low Y Y Y 15 to 19
In an example where monthly rental is 10,000, theoretical maximum value will be 3.6 million (10,0001230=3,600,000), minimum value will be 1.8 million (10,000x12x15 = 1,800,000) and likely value will be 2.4 million (10,000x12x20 = 2,400,000).
Let’s try to test above formula in real life scenario, G-13 has average monthly rental of 50k per month for a 30x60 house. The sector is newly constructed, has good location and tends to be high in demand; the value is expected to be towards the higher end of the spectrum. Multiple of 30 puts the value at 19.8million and at multiple of 25 value comes down to 16.5 million, these theoretical values are pretty close to the real values in the market.
I-10 is a relatively old sector and location (proximity to pirawadhi) among other things pushes the sector towards the lower end of value. Average rent of 25X40 or 25x50 house is 40 thousand. Value of houses is expected to be around 10 million which is equal to 20 years rental. However some of the houses have high rental due to better condition and others have lower rental due to poor location and old construction etc.; the result is that price of houses is some cases is as low as 8.5 to 9 million and in other cases it goes as high as 13 to 14 million.
Real value is determined by market as per market mechanism, above is just to add to understanding how rental and sale value interact with each other. This will be of no use without understanding of market.