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Investor
( 162 posts )

[396 Replies]
Pakistani rupee value is doing a nose dive and currency value has depreciated 30% compared to british pounds since 2017.

I bought 2 plots back in 2015 in bahria town. Even though the price of plots have gone up by 10% each year, the value of currency however depreciated and the investment is completely worthless.

Anyone seeing anything positive coming out of pakistan's economy in the next few years?

    200 days ago In Where to Buy
    Post Answer
    Imtiaz
    (926 posts)
    Good collective insights by all to keep and all important discussion going.

    Regarding the topic on devaluation of the currency, lets put the figures in perspective for the most recent dip in the value of the PKR.

    Aug 17, a day before IK took oath as the PM, 1 USD in Inter Bank was valued are 124.05 PKR. Now in 100 days USD has climbed up by 15 PKR (15 extra PKR in 1 USD & PKR lost 12.1% of its value to USD).

    Since Aug 17, 2018 - Last 100 days

    ------ PKR Devaluation ------

    - Loosers
    1. Importers and Public that used imported goods/services are paying 15 PKR extra for each 1 USD dollar of any import.

    2. Government spending 15 PKR extra on external debt servicing.

    - Winners

    1. Exporters with increased exports where 15 PKR less to be paid for each single USD by the foreign consumer for exported goods.

    2. USD Account Holders with increase of 15 PKR for each USD resting in their account.

    3. Overseas Remittances with 15 PKR for each USD send back to Pakistan but due to utilization of that amount in PAK can be somehow neutralised due to weaker PKR.

    ------------------------------------------------------

    Since Aug 17, 2018 - Last 100 days

    ------ Trade/Fiscal Deficit ------
    Imports: Goods + Services = 21.32 Billion USD

    Exports: Goods + Services = 9.72 Billion USD

    ** Trade Deficit = Imports - Exports = 11.6 Billion USD

    ** Fiscal Deficit = Trade Deficit - Remittances - Foreign Direct Investment

    Fiscal Deficit= 9.72 - 7.42 - 0.6 = 4.8 Billion USD.

    *** Each month our economy loosing 1.2 billion USD ***
    ------------------------------------------------------
      170 days ago 

      Imtiaz
      (926 posts)
      Some interesting predictions, may or may not come true.


      Prediction in 1 years is approx 164 PKR/USD, if that comes true than 4 years prediction will most likely become a reality with approx 192PKR/USD.


      USD to PKR Forecast, Dollar to Pakistani Rupee Currency Rate Prediction: Is "United States Dollar / Pakistani Rupee" Pair a Good Investment?


      https://walletinvestor.com/forex-forecast/usd-pkr-prediction


      ----------
      - Will Dollar to Pakistani Rupee rate grow / rise / go up?

      Yes. The USD/PKR rate can go up from 139.089 to 164.316 in one year.



      - Is it profitable to invest in USD/PKR Forex pair?



      Yes. The long-term earning potential is +18.14% in one year.


      - Will Dollar to Pakistani Rupee rate fall / drop?

      No (see above).



      - What will USD/PKR FX rate be worth in five years (2023)?

      The USD/PKR (USDPKR ) future rate will be 192.552 .
      ---------
        170 days ago 

        Ilyas
        (230 posts)
        It is laughable and shockable and poor MATHEMATICAL CALCULATIONS to suggest pakies to keep $ with the hope to earn with it..... We need to learn maths please......



        My all respected brothers who do not understand MATHEMATICS, I would recommend you to read and understand the following Golden words please.......



        " PAPER MONEY EVENTUALLY RETURNS TO ITS INTRINSIC VALUE- ZERO"



        "THE OLD GUY HAD BEEN TRYING TO LIGHT HIS FIRE WITH PAPER MONEY"........



        MAY ALLAH GUIDE AND PROTECT US.....
          169 days ago 

          Ilyas
          (230 posts)
          WHY was 2008 recession not predicted that dashed the world economy to ground? It is not wise to compare paper money with the realty please please....
            169 days ago 

            Ilyas
            (230 posts)
            What if the $ sinks in couple of days or weeks? How would you weigh your realty then in Pakistan?
              169 days ago 

              Imtiaz
              (926 posts)
              Sir - for your longer posts, I would say one word from the start of my previous post will suffice, i.e., 'PREDICTION' --> FORECASTS that may or may not happen.

              ------
              **Sir as you wrote: "poor MATHEMATICAL CALCULATIONS to suggest"

              i) In my case, I am not 'SUGGESTING' to anyone, in fact in the start of this threads I expressed my views about attaining real estate rather than cash. Here I am just 'EXPRESSING' the alternative view that is a reality and that reality has grown by 12.1% in its values over last 100 or so days.

              ii) Death as a natural phenomenon can get anyone/anywhere/anytime. Still people like to predict, manage and calculate life decisions for years in advance.

              **Your sentence "PAPER MONEY EVENTUALLY RETURNS TO ITS INTRINSIC VALUE- ZERO"

              i) Complete words/context is a must to state the facts, otherwise that doesn't lead to anything meaningful. It may happen in Socialism, perhaps and in barter system but not in Transaction driven environment.

              ii) If you Domestic production becomes zero your currency can crash to 0, not otherwise.

              ** Your sentence "WHY was 2008 recession not predicted that dashed the world economy to ground?"

              i) Simple fact should not be missed that not 100/100 times economic growth is proportional to strong currency. China also devalues its currency to get increased exports that strengthens its economy & exports.

              ii) For your information, people did predict and googling helps. At-least one example, I can share with you.

              https://www.businessinsider.com/jim-rickards-interview-global-financial-crisis-gold-fed-2017-11

              EU was the one that was badly hit due to the fact that EU tried to manage almost all major EU states, despite different economic dynamics, with a single currency, i.e., EURO. As a matter of fact, it must be a basic sense recession does not just happen on daily utilized goods and services it hits real estate too like many other sectors. In the EU due to the recession one of the badly hit sector was 'REAL Estate'. A simplest example, the room on rent for EUR 450 - 490 a month was down to 325 a month in 3 months time and house on sale for 2.5M Euro was down to 2M in about 6 months time. People were unable to pay even their mortgages due to unemployment and rising interest rates. In Spain (one of the worst hits of recession) some were unable to pay mortgage and retain their properties and a few even committed the suicide. I mean isn't it a common sense too that when economy shrinks so does the real estate investments/prices. I am yet to see a single example where recession is happening and real estate is growing, if there is one would be good to analye that.

              ** Your sentence "What if the $ sinks in couple of days or weeks? How would you weigh your realty then in Pakistan?"

              i) What is if doesn't? and

              ii) CASH (in USD) is the word that suggests it is the most liquid asset in the world. Its not going to crash overnight. IF and whenever it starts to happen just utilise it/exchange it. For example, I wanna get rid of USD I can get up and go to any good/service provider to exchange my dollar for some asset or service. Real estate is not that liquid as of now.

              Unless Petro-Dollar relation and international transaction in USD are declined USD (fortunately or unfortunately) will flourish...
              -------------------

              In this forum, based on my limited knowledge, I have favored for both REAL ESTATE vs CASH (in USD). The reality is in last 100 days USD has grown by > 12%, I am not sure if the local real estate has made such growth across the board. Reality cant be denied.

              I would like to know, where exactly are ''poor MATHEMATICAL CALCULATIONS'', any specific example?

              I try my best to put forward figures and facts with an open acknowledgement that these are personal views and I stand corrected on them based on facts/figures but definitely not on just some random words/statements :)

                169 days ago 

                Isloo1
                (358 posts)
                I wrote 29 days ago...

                [QUOTE] This country is ruled by most incompetent lot, which is not just tabdeeli sarkar, but also those at the helm pulling the strings.

                The economy has nose dived since mid last year and the bottom is yet to come. So my dear Investor, it pains me to say that rupee is further going to sink as the tabdeeli sarkar is bringing back empty begging bowl from China. I would be happy if it stops at 150.? [UNQUOTE]

                ---------

                I have nothing to add, just wait and watch and protect your hard-earned money.

                  169 days ago 

                  JDM
                  (609 posts)
                  Inki Cheekhein Niklein Gi, Mein Inko Naheen Chorron Ga

                  ~ PM Imran Khan (August 19th, 2018 at PM House Islamabad)


                  Very happy to hear people crying and complaining over this forum. It only means all is going in the right direction.
                    168 days ago 

                    Imtiaz
                    (926 posts)
                    "Inki Cheekhein Niklein Gi, Mein Inko Naheen Chorron Ga"

                    --> if 'Inki' was meant to be 'Public/Commoner' than yes, promise kept and perfectly executing ...

                    and

                    Cheers for the Keyboard Warriors who without looking into the contents can interpret the discussions/arguments as people crying and complaining...

                    RIP Common Sense!
                      168 days ago 

                      Ty Phoon
                      (182 posts)
                      Me as a commoner and tax payer yes IK has proved to be a curse. He brags on media while not implementing anything good.
                        168 days ago 

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