"Anyone seeing anything positive coming out of pakistan's economy in the next few years?"
No one knows, not even the best of the economist. Especially in a scenario, where we are inviting the world to invest in Pakistan and on the other hands a handful of agitators locking down the country, burning off public assets and the state (Govt. + Military + Court), not only the current but all of them from the recent decade came down to its knees to beg a way out from such handful of blackmailers.
Regarding your question on Devaluation, I think the correlation between Foreign Currency (reserve) & Real estate cant be compared/measured that easily. I am not sure about the British Pounds stability in the last few years due to Brexit etc.
"Pound slumps to 31-year low following Brexit vote"
The Guardian | 24 Jun 2016
"Results from across the country suggesting the Brexit camp were on the brink of declaring a referendum victory saw sterling down 10% against the dollar"
Lets talk about USD (somehow the universal benchmark)
- Currency Devaluation
It is not a bad thing, especially of you have good volume of exports. In-fact china devalues it currency to increase exports volume and ultimately the foreign reserves. PKR depreciation hurts us when our foreign debts in USD grow but we dont have the exports to balance that off. Why does USD takes a hit on the PKR? - the Supply & Demand and same applies to the real estate, when there is a real demand prices only go upwards.
- Cash Reserves
They may not be that stable as they sound, recent example of crashing currencies in developed and emerging economies include but not limited to British Pounds (Brexit Impact), Turkish Lira, Indian Rupee Chinese Yuan (Trade-war and Intl. Tariffs) Russian Ruble (slow GDP and trade deficit). I myself, in 2014 personally experienced depreciation of Danish Krone by 21% in approx 6 - 8 months time, while at the same time a plot of mine in ISB grew by 30% of price in 6 - 8 months.
- Life/Investment Decisions...
Sometimes its not a universal phenomenon but more a consequence of a personal choice. Decision B instead of Decision A could have lead to a different outcome. May be your investment in some other society (lets say Zone 2 of CDA could have brought upto 100% approx gain in last 4 - 5 years).
Since 2016 to early 2018 British Pound "...fallen by 12% against the Euro and 5% against the US Dollar since May 2016."
It means that if I had saving in Euro not the GBP, since 2016 I would have gained even more against the PKR. Similarly, if I may had invested in Society X instead of Society Y I may had gained much more than 10% and in some cases may be up to 100%
I think its an interesting topic and discussion, despite being a layman with minimal knowledge of the economics/monetary issues, I still believe the correlation between growth of Asset in Cash vs Real Estate is not that simple. If in a hypothetical scenario, you consider to invest the GBP in Northern English Property than BT, your views can be quite on the opposite end.
"Northern England house prices to rise at faster rate than London" - The Guardian | Nov 2, 2018
But yes, Pakistani economy is a mystery - nothing less of a Vegas Casino in terms of jackpot or the bankruptcy... Alternative can be a USD bank account with reserves and good growth. I believe, some investments are worth the thrill that's with good personal decisions rather than seeing the boring trend of USD going up at a certain percentage each passing year. Because if its only about the currency than why not the Bitcoin, great risks but a Jackpot for sure if you are lucky!
380 days ago