A major chunk of clientage for Rudn, Nova, Life etc. is that depends on Booking (at max) + Installments that span over years. Not sure how much of that can be transformed into the likes of lumpsum in Gulberg, DHs etc. Some parts yes but not a major shift, I Say.
The shift is in same segment. Investment will flow from these low Investment societies to other in same category. The likelihood of a switch from a brand new Corrola to a new City/Civic is more likely than towards a Mercedez or Cruiser (unless some rare jackpot hit scenario). Same holds true for housing project.
Segmentation matters ...
Dear Imtiaz Bhai,
There are investors in such societies who pick us 30, 40, 50 , 100 or 200 files in bulk. This needs a lot of money. Any delay in RRR will divert their investment to developing blocks of said societies. This is my point.
People having one file in such societies are very few in numbers.
Ultimately DHA-3/5, Bahria phase-8 as a whole and orchard/extension will pull investment per pace of development.
As I said extension & orchard will take 3 years distinct from RRR failure.
Same goes for I- series, gulberg possession plotsand B-17 possession plots.
University town also starred gaining buy RRR will have impact to some level.
Best bet is to sell all RRR investments reported in the fact finding committee, as some societies has less than 1000 Kanal land and sold 30,000 files...Nova is one of them.
Good old BTs & DHAs best for investment.
Even DHA Valley possessed blocks are surely gaining now.
A 5 Marla in oleander has jumped by one million..10 Lacs to 20 Lacs.
Time to sell and run away from all fraudulent societies mentioned in the report and they are 20s of them.
Best time for non-affected societies from RRR failure and they will cash maximum from the scandal by bettering their development pace.
Yes Hamayun sb, in.such instances bulk trading (files that are cheap) rapidly suits investors far more than a single plot. More buyer in market, more frequent trading.
Sell in bulk (Cheap) to more clients at less = Chinese Model
Sell exclusive (specilaised) to less clients at more = Japanese/US model
I understand your perspective and it's rational. I say the transition most probabaly will be not that significant between segments.
Bahria / DHA possession areas prices will come down due to RRR seems similar prediction as dollar to touch 185 by end of 2020 
How and why a developed area where schools, markets, hospitals and 1000s of houses already built will ever come down in rates ?
@Humayyun, your analysis seems to be in right direction. Indeed these mushroom societies around RRR would die their own death if indeed RRR is shelved. But that does not mean that the satta (speculative betting) was not played in BT Ph.8 and DHA-3. I have been closely watching prices, and just when RRR news confirmed, prices in these areas went through the roof. Which means every Tom Dick and Harry jumped the bandwagon. These petty investors usually play with Biayana money, and can not hold for more than 2-3 months. So now with bad news these inflated prices are bound to come back to pre-RRR level.
Construction package, housing loan, Rupee depreciation, and RRR, all have exhausted their potential impact. What future holds is uncertain. But if you start listing down new factors, then, these seem plausible:
1. Budget 2021-22: new policies/initiative/taxes
2. FATF decision
3. Government's stability
4. Malik Riaz's case
Of all these, I am inclined to weigh the 4th as the heaviest one. It can turn the entire market depending the fate of MR. Who is in thick soup at the moment. Although he managed to offset some of 450 bn fine with the help of Shahzad Akbar and Cabinet, but still the sword is hanging over his head. Which I believe is by design to keep all BTs across country down and give undue advantage to its biggest competitor (you know who).
But you've reached to the same conclusion as I, that this is not a buyer market.
Another wave of rush has strike bahria head office for transfer. Yesterday i went there & came to interact with few people, My conclusion was, Investment from Attock loop of RRR project has started moving towards bahria & DHA. Investors are going to prefer Genuine societies as compared to junk investment in NOVA or Life residencia etc. This made me to estimate 8 extension 5 marla may see a further rise of 3 lacs, 10 marla may see a rise of 5-6 lacs. & 1 kanal may jump further 5-10 lacs.
This is my opinion,
Rest of the matter, God knows Better.
Well said Bahria-8,Ext and orchard is rising on daily basis if you compare prices in last six months.
Regards
Isloo1 Brother,
You have analyzed the scenario very well. But i think Budget 2021-22 will be friendly for real estate. As govt has just tested the taste of Economic growth, Rise in GDP & economic activity by promoting construction & real estate.
Secondly FATF wants Pakistan to control Dealers, Not the investors & Genuine clients. That is why Govt has a plan to make a regulatory body named RERA ( Real Estate Regulatory Authority) Just as indians have. I think this step will be a good one for investors ^ Genuine buyers. Bcoz every trade will be legalized within a framework, Instead of Heavy TOPS to dealers in cash & formation of a new black money. So i also consider this factor a positive one for the real estate.
Thirdly Govt will complete its 5 years. There is not direct threat to Govt. As N league & PPP are again in reconciliation with Military.
As Malik Riaz is concerned, He has many retired generals in his pocket. Although DHA has given him a dent in Bahria karachi as a revenge to DHA Valley embracement. But You know BAhria is recovering from this loss day by day. DHA phase 9 & city Development is far below Bahria standard. There is nothing in DHA new sectors although it has introduced in 2007. But BTK has attracted much investment, Population & developed a new dubai in BTK. Most important thing, MR knows how to manage the things.
In current regime, All ranks are comfortable with Malik riaz, otherwise bahria could not be able to get any interchange on RRR, or any penalty adjustment.
This is my view, everyone can have difference of opinion.
And in the end i apologies for commenting in pieces bcoz Zameen.com forum is not accepting my complete comment in one post. So i have to divide it in parts.
Malik Riaz did not get RRR interchange as an exclusive permission..
Any society having certain criteria, can make a flyover or underpass on any NHA highway, even on motorway itself but it will go to NHA post completion...this decision is done in present govt a year before.
Also Imran housing scheme, MR is going to be a main player.
@Humayyun dear,
First, I don't think it is the length of the post, but is a very restrictive filter that sends posts to admin's review. This however, does not work when you edit a post. So we've all learned a trick to start a post with a letter and then fill it up later in edit.
Secondly, your have given some very pertinent findings and hopes. But looking at treatment of clown MR and BTs, lagta hey us key sitaray abhi bhi gardish mein hein. He's still being sliced and diced for a pound of flesh.
Hope I am wrong.
Isloo1 bhai,
Thanks for giving a loop hole in filter. Shall try this technique next time for a detailed comment.
Regards,
In that 'On the Paper, Billions Down the Drain RRR Layout' there were about 10 interchnages. 6 to be constructed by Govt via NHA and other 4 under private-public partnership (paid by private housing society owners). In the planned layout 1 out of those 4 private ones was for BT, most probabaly at P8 Ext.
RRR is once again on the design bench per the old loop till thalian interchange.
Most of the work has already been done...
Most recent news is: Govt wants to include it in the next fiscal year...
However a million $ issue...how billions would be reimbursed which were paid to the owners/mafia's?
RRR is written in stone but not likely in Imran govt, though He is committed but this stupid, headless Buzdar in the hands of Baboo's...