We have seen major price increase in i-16, b-17, phase 8 bahria. Has the current peak achieved or the boom will go on in 2021 aswel and property prices will further escalate.
nadeem bhae, nasir bhae, imtiaz bhae and qayyum bhae are specially requested for their opinion.
For now, prices seem stable everywhere, transactions happening at a fine rate. They are most likely to remain stable until maybe somewhere in June where I think you can expect a small correction because buyers will wait for budget and FATF decision to come out.
If budget is construction-friendly, expect the market to keep going up otherwise the boom will most certainly be over. Also, I believe many sellers are holding their properties now because they are expecting increase in prices after Eid but that will not happen. I say this because Pakistan has already reduced flights so very few overseas investors are coming and most overseas Pakistanis who planned to come are not coming anyways because of hotel quarantine expenses when they return to their country of residence again.
Qureshi sb
As a thump rule, when property boom starts subsiding, the first bullet goes to the files.
The possessed and developed plots see some corrections but almost stay the same and increase on a natural rise after staying stagnant for some time.
Yes incoming budget will set the future course of property prices upon whether or not budget will be property friendly.
My friend got profit of 45 Lacs in Faisal hills and I advised him to sell immediately..he did and now prices are settling there.
I think one shall wait till budget sets the property investment portfolio.
Having said that, commercials in files are totally different story...they can shoot in legs even developed post property boom as commercials fully depend on the factual residencies around for their resale/rental worth.
I think budget will remain construction friendly as i think its one of the very few industries that saved Pakistan economy in last 1-2 years. Right now there is no other better option for govt. So plot prices will keep growing. I think what ever the crises Pakistan face CDA prices never stops growing. In fact when ever a crises rises in Pakistan CDA prices gets a huge bump. Specially developed sectors.
Agreed to Nasir sb
Muhalla plots never got affected by any boom shoom or whatever happened with Pak economy.
Only file business empties people pockets...that's what I say keep very close watch on file prices and when you see even one Lac profit per month, sell and run from the file bound buying in that place.
Muhallah Plots and Open Land boom big time. They don't have shiny tags and fancy marketing campaigns so remain mostly under the radar on online forum and share and clicks.
Countless examples but most recent and with first hand knowledge. Recent example: Satellite Town Commercial on main boomed in last 12 - 18 months from 30/35 lakh per Marla to 50+ lakh a Marla. Now people have cash in hand same day payments at 55/60 lakh per Marla but there isn't any seller.
Regardless of economic conditions, unless extreme disaster golden time for real estate transactions in PAK is between the 2 Eids.
@Nasir
At this point you can only speculate as to what the budget would be but as you mentioned PTI has been very construction-friendly, it is a tenet of their policy to boost economy so I imagine they will continue supporting it. Also, recent comments from Imran Khan and Shaukat Tarin do suggest that the IMF deal will be renegotiated to allow tax exemptions, so definitely it seems like favourable conditions for construction will remain.
One more point: as there is lot of money circulating in untraceable prize bonds that money will also come into real estate soon. So another big hype is coming.
Prices has not only increased in societies you have mentioned but also in jinnah garden, naval and surrounding areas.
Majority of these societies have price increased bcz of "road pakki hona or pakkana is newsko " ....
So I am not expecting another major jump...
thanxx all dear bros for your valuable thoughts...JazakaAllah..
Being optimistic about further price hike...i wana add another point that government is relaxing low interest bank loan eligibility criteria for people to get loans for building houses...so more money is going to be injected in pakistani soil which would further move the price.
@Qurreshi
Agreed, however other factors also need to be taken into consideration. An increase of interest rates is imminent now, so if they hike the interest rates (over next year), more people will keep their investment in banks. However, if interest rates are only slightly increased over the fiscal year then negligible difference.
Again, all depends on budget and government's intentions. We should get more news about budget by end of this month and hopefully a clear picture in June. I do expect favourable policies because Pak economy needs quick GDP growth and construction industry seems to be the most viable option.
Roshan Pakistan Digital Account Deposits has reached 1 Bn Dollars level. Govt expects it will touch $3Bn till December 21. Where will this money Go? Obviously in Real estate, Stock Market & Fixed Interest Bonds paid on high returns Such as 7% on Dollars & 11% on PKR.
Secondly, all banks are bound to give minimum 5% of their income as low interest house financing scheme. This will continuously generate a demand for housing sector. So All files, & Plots will have an additional demand. Genuine Societies will always attract more investments such as DHAs & Bahrias.
Pakistanis have a nature to act when time is out. So every extension to Amenity scheme will bring more money in the real estate sector to make it white. And believe me there is a huge amount of Black money that needs to be white. Once a money is white, HAs the most probably chances of rotation in real estate for at least few times.
Furthermore, Devaluation of the PKR has increased the income of many Pakistanis. A majority of Overseas Pakistanis invest this money in Real-estate, No other avenue else. I am listening since 2004 that Pakistani stock markets have maximum 0.6Mn Investment Account only out of which only 10% hardly invest or trade. Still the numbers are same.
So anyone thinking Its bubble & will burst now is living in an imaginary world. All bubbles are brust when they exceed their limit, Means when demand decreases & Supply increases. I can see demand Is still increasing & more & more factors are adding up to increase the demand. Whereas the supply is not increasing with the same pace. I feel prices has just discounted all the factors such as currency devaluation & increase in demand yet, & recovered the level that was due since long, the market is in equilibrium now. The bubble making will start when but not in near future.
Secondly during 2017, In Bahria F-3 F-2 & L Block, before possession, When it was file. The rates were between 28-35 lacs. 5 Marla files in M block were trading at 19-20 lacs before possession. Although PKR was stable at 105 Rupees per dollar, But at 153 level, How Phase 8 Extension or other societies files have become over purchased? I think there is a long way to go. The prices may consolidate. Will bubble brust is far away. Almost not within a year. Especially in Islamabad & Rawalpindi Cities, Two projects RRR & Margallah Avenue are changing the dimensions of the real estate sector.
This is my personal view, Anyone can differ.
Sir, if it is a bubble then it is a dimension less bubble.
My Allah, the DHA-5, overseas applicants are demanding 40 Lacs profit on a 10 Marla & 80 Lacs on one Kanal in sector K.
Mindbogglingly situation, I want to buy one Kanal & 1 crore & 30 Lacs with me and hell I cannot even THINK to own a Kanal plot in entire DHA-5.
Wanted to invest in DHA valley Bluebell, 8 Marla ballottedt residential for my relative...my Allah, the very same sky rocketed from 12 Lacs to 38 Lacs & people are only pricing...nothing actual in market.
Same goes in DHA-3 army allocation..
Serene city a good plot now more than 2 crore.
Only phase-8 although increased but still one Kanal in orchard with possession & ready for construction still around 1 crore...Allah Only Knows, after a week this would stay at 1 crore?
B-17, as one guru said, a roller coaster is about to zero towards impossible!
Humayyun sb. You are right this is highly unprecedented and where would it stall, unimaginable!!!
Black money is being dumped at gigantic scale every hour!
Dear Abdul Qayyum sb,
Brother If you consider DHA plots in Lahore, Phase 9 1 Kanal file is above 1.50 crore. Phase 5 & 6 1 Kanal plot costs almost 4-5 crore. Although DHA Lahore is very old as compared to DHA Pindi Islamabad. But it will also follow the same trend with the passage of time. I remember the time when i mentioned in a comment that 1 kanal in 50 lacs in F-4 & orchard is very good rate as i see it very much underpriced, & it must cross 1 crore. & now i myself amazed to see just 6 months have passed & these both blocks have crossed. I would just say govt rules regulations & taxes have pressed real estate sector very much in last 5-6 years. But as all restrictions are lifted up by current regime, The property prices, or you say The compressed Spring has jumped up to its original level.
I very much enjoyed and it very informative Humayyun Raja.I don't think any possession area will go down even some area will not rise but it will be steady.
Regards