Is the current property boom over ?

Many Thanks Raja sb.
You are no doubt a real Raja of the twin cities property Kingdom…
Everyone else comes after you, sir…
Moral of story eventuates then:
DHA valley is gold mine if DHA expressway become a reality if & if those 5 families surrender about 3 km patch to DHA which is now under a strong mafia’s hand. It seems it is an impossible task for GHQ, as we stand…
Kalsr Sayidan double road is the only access but I think afte RRR starting point at Rawat, people will settle on this only access & far located blocks will prosper in future.
It seems DHA expressway mafia is so far winning & case in court will take long long time before it gets settled.
I am all for only the ballotted & possession blocks investments which I think will pay back, may be double, on 3rd ballot In Shaa Allah.

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welcome abdul qayyum sb

BOY! I’m still waiting for an amnesty extension.

Boy, don’t worry I am waiting as well. I hope you watched Tarin’s recent press conference because he mentions construction industry along with 13 other industries that government will further focus on as discussed with IMF. Chances are still good that amnesty gets extended because the only other attention they can give to construction industry is by extending amnesty once again.

Tarin in conference also mentions that government’s main aim is sustainable, high growth through positive balance of payments and high employment opportunities. High employment opportunities will be provided through further amnesty as has been govt policy.

buddy read your comments above you said media is misleading headlines that we need permission from IMF and Tarin is anti amnesties. now you are saying that Train wants to give the amnesty and trying to get permission from IMF. Boy!! I’ve told you already it’s not as easy as you think. there are lots of factors involved in it.

I will chase you in it till you agree with me. :smiley:

No no, it is pretty easy. Read my comment again. I said the plan to focus on 14 industries will be discussed with IMF, that does not mean they need permission from IMF to give amnesty. That solely depends on Tarin and PTI govt. Tarin has been anti amnesties for a very long time even before he came to finance office, hence amnesty extension has not been given yet. Maybe he changes his mind based on some convincing and what talks with IMF lead to. And my comment above mentions that Tarin said government will focus on 14 industries, how? They haven’t completely mentioned. I don’t see how much more focus they can give to construction other than another amnesty.

There are not many factors involved. If govt backs it, they will issue a presidential ordinance for it and there you go, you will have your amnesty. You can chase me all you want, I won’t agree with you.

Amnesty or no amnesty, correct has been creeped in properties…
Time to get out from highly escalated properties & park money in still low budget performing societies having solid plots with good pace of development.
Upon Rs devaluation, people will still opt for property buying as gold keeping in Pakistan is not straight forward investment & gold buying in flocks will further devalue PKR.

Qayyum sb, panic selling has happened already during Maharram and I’m afraid whoever has sold during panic will be at a loss. This is a time for holding because market will rebound in coming months and further rise. I say this because government has fully said that they want to focus on construction and when construction relief is given, biggest benefactors are real estate and developers. Small corrections and dips take place here and there but until 2022, I expect market will mostly be positive. Under PTI government, I don’t expect real estate to crash or take major correction or at least until budget 2022 session, since current budget has been very lenient for real estate investors. Most investors will not have to pay more than 10% capital gains tax which is still lowest among all other investment opportunities like stocks, savings certificates, savings account. Interest rates are still lowest in years and are expect to remain that way for some while.

It would be stupid to sell in current state as market is already down and you won’t get good offers. Even if you want to exit market and book profit, sell when the market rebounds again in a couple of months. And once again, this PKR devaluation drama is overhyped. If I remember correctly, PKR went upto a high of 168-69 last year during August, September. Why? Because as financial year starts, certain imports become more demanding so currency devalues. The same cycle is happening and I have no doubt PKR will come down again to 160-65 level where it should be. Current devaluation is due to temporary import surge plus a bit of speculative currency trading. No need to panic, stay calm and never sell during temporary panic market.

Sir
I have already said that if high performing areas profit is high then only to be sold & park money in the areas, one think would be profitable with lesser price.
No need to hold & just wait for correction & secure loss, which is invitable.

Correction? Small correction has already taken place, and there is no chance a major correction would arrive until 2022 budget. Historically, markets always slow down during Maharram and rebound afterwards.

Let us hope so, sir?

Qayyum sb just a bit of history. Pak real estate boom cycle are usually 4 years long and never has a boom period been less than 3 years. Right now we are only into second year of boom. I’m not saying there are zero chances that a real estate boom will be two years but it is more than likely that current boom will not end this year but rather in 2022-23.

Amnesty or alike matters are not as strict regulations but more like compliance with monetary policies, pretty much like UN sort stuff (as a loose analogy). As a matters of facts, rather than an idea world, one has to listen to the lender!

See most recent case of Ukraine. IMF stance in general on such amnesties:

The International Monetary Fund has criticized the proposal, saying global experience shows such measures often hurt long-run revenue collection as people put off paying taxes in expectation of future amnesties. It also warned against allowing people the chance to launder the proceeds of corruption and other criminal activities.

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Quite a correlation

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/ukraine-approves-tax-amnesty-criticized-by-imf-for-graft-risk

IMF opposed it yet Ukraine who has been under IMF programme and received funding as early as last year still approved the amnesty scheme.

IMF opposing amnesty does not matter because government has the major say in whether it should be extended or not. Case in point is this IMF doesn’t support amnesty schemes, says country representative - SAMAA

IMF opposed the amnesty scheme and what did the government do at the end of the same month? Extended the scheme. IMF can recommend the policy but they don’t control final decision, Pak government has that right. In the face of IMF opposition, they have extended amnesty several times and if they want to further extend it, they still can.

Yes, that has been the point, i. e., policy compliance rather than enforcement! However, it depends, if such compliance issues have impact on next round of negotiation or tranche of loan. Not a binding but not a walk in the park either!

Prices in B-17 & Faisal Hills have stopped increasing since EID.
I am not aware of other places ? Have other sectors seeing same stagnant situation?
Can some guru shed light that is that property BOOM over or its just routine process that prices are consolidating and will jump again

Rise will be Specific

  • B-17 and adjacent will rise slowly till MA get operational
  • CDAs will rise but gradual
  • In general, yes selective projects will grow that have infrastructures projects around (Rawl Chowk, Golra Underpass, MA, etc. etc.). Overall prices will stagnate.

RE the months ahead:

  • Until PKR kept falling (lost significant value in few days), foreign investment in RE will shrink.
  • New regulations by FBR for compliance to FATF will impact projects that have DC value more than 2 Million.

All in all yes, prices will slow down, organic rise in selective projects and foreign investment inflow will impact if PKR sheds further

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Regards,
Humayyun Iftikhar Raja.

Can you please share how you got your account back?
Its been almost a month but i am not able to log in to my account so created a new dummy account.
I have tried resetting password too but no luck.