Karachi: Pakistan’s cement industry recorded a 6% year-on-year (YoY) increase in total dispatches during October 2025, reaching 4.75 million tons, according to a report by brokerage firm AKD Securities. The rise was primarily fueled by strong domestic demand, which climbed 15% YoY to 3.9 million tons, reflecting renewed construction activity and ongoing post-flood reconstruction efforts.
The report noted that local sales were further supported by a 2.4% YoY decline in cement prices. Average daily local dispatches reached 127,000 tons in October, marking an 11% month-on-month (MoM) increase — the highest level in 32 months. As a result, industry-wide capacity utilization improved to 67%, up from 62% in the same month last year.
However, export performance remained weak. Cement exports dropped by 23% YoY to 830,000 tons, with shipments from the South region falling 22% YoY to 680,000 tons, while exports from the North were down 28% YoY. The decline in northern exports was attributed mainly to the closure of the Afghan border in late October. Consequently, capacity utilization in the South slipped to 89% from 100% last year, while the North’s utilization rose to 62%, the highest in nearly two years.
Looking ahead, AKD Securities projected that domestic cement prices may see a marginal 0.3% YoY decline in FY26, largely due to lower rates in the North, where a 1.2% drop is anticipated following a reduction in royalty charges in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In contrast, prices in the South are expected to rise by around 4.1% YoY, driven by stronger export margins and sustained domestic demand.
For FY27, overall cement prices are forecast to rise by 6.5% YoY, supported by improving market conditions. The investment outlook for the sector remains positive, with analysts maintaining an ‘Overweight’ stance, expecting a recovery in FY26 amid monetary easing, higher public development spending, and an improved macroeconomic environment.
Domestic offtake is projected to increase by 7% YoY to 38.6 million tons in FY26, led by lower interest rates and higher allocations in the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP). Top stock picks highlighted by AKD Securities include Lucky Cement (LUCK), DG Khan Cement (DGKC), and Fauji Cement (FCCL).
Despite export challenges and regional variations, the cement sector is positioned for continued recovery, with robust local demand underpinning steady growth in the coming fiscal years.
Samra Zulfiqar, a real estate analyst at Zameen.com, is passionate about finding projects that offer buyers the best returns. Her keen insights spotlight the market’s most promising opportunities.
