Karachi: The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Monday revised its foreign exchange reserves forecast for the fiscal year 2026, increasing the projection from USD 17.5 billion to USD 17.8 billion, citing a contained current account deficit and the expected materialisation of planned official inflows.
According to the monetary policy statement, the central bank anticipates its foreign exchange reserves to reach USD 15.5 billion by December 2025 and around USD 17.8 billion by June 2026. The SBP attributed the positive outlook to prudent external account management and continued inflows from multilateral and bilateral sources.
The bank noted that despite the repayment of a USD 500 million Eurobond, its reserves have continued to rise, standing at USD 14.5 billion as of October 17. Over the past three years, the SBP has purchased more than USD 20 billion from the interbank market while ensuring timely external debt repayments.
The central bank expects the current account deficit to remain within the earlier projected range of zero to 1.0 percent of GDP in FY26. It also projects remittances to improve to over USD 41 billion during the fiscal year, compared to USD 38 billion in the previous year.
During a post-policy briefing, SBP Governor Jameel Ahmad said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) executive board is expected to meet by December to approve disbursements under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). Pakistan is set to receive USD 1 billion under the EFF and an additional USD 200 million under the RSF following approval.
The SBP reaffirmed its commitment to meeting all external debt obligations on schedule. For FY26, total net repayments amount to USD 10 billion, of which USD 3.1 billion has already been settled.
It further clarified that the difference between import figures reported by the SBP and the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics stems from the use of different data sources, and the discrepancy is expected to normalise over time. The bank added that import volumes have already been reflected in the import bill and that it does not anticipate any difficulty in financing current import levels, though volatility in global oil prices could pose risks.
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